Tuesday, December 30, 2008

2008 Defensive Player of the Year? Why Not Reed?

If I had a choice for Defensive Player of the Year, bias aside, Ravens safety Ed Reed would get my vote.

Though Reed does not even come close to leading the league (nor defensive backs, for that matter) in tackles, I do not believe that tackles are a complete indication of a player's dominance, especially given their misleading nature.

The main reason why tackle numbers are sometimes inflated, is that a defensive player constantly see more snaps when their offense is unable to score on a regular basis. Additionally, that player may also be the only one making plays for their unit (see: San Francisco's Patrick Willis, Detroit's Ernie Sims, etc.).

However, the same argument can be made for a defensive player on a winning team with a dismal offense. Therefore, my logic is, if a player can force a turnover, regardless of whether or not their team is winning, they are at least giving their team a chance to score, especially if that turnover results in a defensive TD.

With that said, I would not be surprised if the award is still given to Pittsburgh's James Harrison. For all intents and purposes, Dallas' DeMarcus Ware drops out of this discussion because he simply could not will his team to victory. Though he still had an impressive season, his performance was not dominant enough to determine the outcome of games.

Harrison and Reed, on the other hand, have singlehandedly won games this season for their respective teams. Harrison, however, will likely get the edge with Associated Press voters because: 1) the award has gone to a defensive back only 8 times since its inception in 1971; and 2) voters often valued sacks over turnovers, in many instances.

In spite of the argument in favor of sacks, however, Ware will not get the nod despite being the league's sack leader, because Harrison has had more of an impact for his team, both in statistics and intangibles.

But, when speaking of intangibles, that is where Ed Reed again enters the discussion. With every turnover he creates, the Ravens have a distinctly better shot at winning, as evidenced in the 45-0 record since 2000 when the team has a +2 turnover ratio; this is even more impressive, given that teams have still lost games with a positive turnover ratio (see: the San Diego Chargers).

In essence, it is hard to argue against either Ed Reed or James Harrison. However, aside from being a Ravens fan, it is hard not to give Reed the edge, simply for all he has done to stand out on a team that has had a staggering amount of injuries.

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